Skip to main content

Seasonality in Real Estate

Today we will address some misconceptions we have heard of the real estate market, specifically that "summer is the best time to sell", and though it is true that most transaction close in May, June and July (with June being a peak), many go into contract (mostly for 45 days now) in March, April and May, after starting to think about it after the new year. Below is a chart of the existing home sales nationwide, the date includes up to April 2016:
raw-ehs
This applies not only to sales, but also to rentals, though we have much less data to show this, anecdotal evidence (we have 7 moveouts for June 2016), experience and thinking through it should make it clear that most renters do not want to move in November and December.
In Chinese culture, the 'Dragon Boat Festival' (or "Duanwu Jie") is a summer festival, this year starting on June 9, 2016, it essentially celebrates the Summer Solstice. This is important as this is a vacation time for this segment of housing demand.
Activity tends to slow down after Memorial Day (as the market is feeling now) as children are on summer break, with the 4th of July being another dip in sales activity until September.
There is also the expression in the stock market to 'Sell in May and Go Away', which carries  this same philosophy.
Note that seasonality is not destiny, and as there is also less inventory available at those times, below are figures for Orange County:
Orange County
Note in the above chart, that 'for sale' inventory builds after May as the red line (pendings) dwindle.
In conclusion, the best time to get the best price (for sale or lease) of your real starts in March, builds and peaks in  May, then drops after July, with July itself closing out those going into escrow in May and June.

Yorba Linda, CA-TRREG DRE#01843673-RP100 DRE#02059058-P:714-831-1800-E:info@theresultsrealestategroup.com-W:www.theresultsrealestategroup.com-Facebook - Twitter - Instagram - LinkedIn
Labels:
Location: Brea, CA, USA

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Real Estate Investments: Invest Up

I want to speak briefly to the masses today. Normally our audience is the Buyer and Seller, and yet it is easy enough for anyone to become both. It could even happen that you are a Buyer, Seller, and Investor at the same time! How can this be? Me, a normal person can be a Investor? Yes. Even more than that, as soon as you start your journey you start doing something greater than yourself, building generational wealth. Let's start at the very beginning, a very good place to start. This beginning looks like a house purchase. That would be because it is a house purchase. Assuming you are buying this house to rent out, you are now a Landlord and Investor. The first house is going to be the scariest, it gets easier from there. Let's assume you have rented out the house for a couple of years and you are looking to upgrade from a Single Family Residence to a Duplex. You would sell your Single Family Residence and 1031 the proceeds of the sale into the purchase of the duplex. Yo...
Post a Comment
Read more

The Fault in our iBuyers(iBrokers)

Today's topic will be about this developing trend of what are called "iBuyers", which are buyers that are more "convenient" to a seller, and who buy houses "as-is" with "all cash". In today's controversial environment of taking a position, this sounds all too familiar.  I would like to bullet point some of the problems of this iBuyer Trend: 1. iBuyers are really iBrokers The "buyers" really are intermediaries for larger venture capital companies, one of these companies, Opendoor, just closed on $300 million more to bring their total funding over $1 billion to buy single family homes for rent and for flip. It is estimated to spend more than $4 billion per year buying homes . Though the terms of the funding are not public, no one hands someone else $1 billion with no strings attached, they have their guidelines and what they can and can not do and are functionally no different than brokers.  2. Therefore, more i...
Post a Comment
Read more

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Coronavirus

Greetings, Today I wanted to simply jot down some thoughts I had about this novel coronavirus (COVID-19) that the news cycle seems to love to talk about: - Will real estate values be affected? The answer is the same as every real estate question, it depends. I believe luxury will be impacted, I think more modest dwellings will not, and for a very simple reason, there is not more inventory and people have to live somewhere. - Is this our 1987 moment? In 1987 we had Black Monday, the biggest one day stock market drop in history, afterwards, real estate prices went up in a straight line for 18 months. Just like any good investor, when there is a shock to the system, you have to recalibrate, you either go to safety (or even relative safety, like houses versus paper ownership in a company), or you go to what has been undervalued. I suspect there is a good chance this is our 1987 moment for real estate. The 80's are dead, long live the 80's. - The drop in stock price...
Post a Comment
Read more